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Copyright © 2010

 The Aviation Consulting Group

 

 

PAPERS AND RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The following papers have been authored by TACG president, Dr. Robert Baron. In order to access these .pdf files you will need a password that is good for all current and future papers posted to this page. Please fill out the following form to request your password

 

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Rethinking Human Error Statistics in Aircraft Accidents

2010

It seems like every time I read an aviation safety-related research study there is a ubiquitous statistic that always grabs my attention. I am referring to the "70%-80% of airplane accidents are attributable to human error" statistic. This stat grabs my attention not because of its seemingly high estimate; in fact, it surprises me that it is unrealistically low. It might be time to start acknowledging that almost every airplane accident has a human error component. I posit that 95%-99% of airplane accidents are attributable to human error. My statistical estimate is based on facts which will be discussed shortly...

Beyond the Initial Human Factors Course: A Little Science…A Little Anecdote

2010

The development of Human Factors (HF) recurrent training courses can offer a few unique challenges for aviation organizations. First, the subject matter that should be covered in a recurrent course can be rather nebulous. This can be compounded by questions relating to how much time should be allocated to the course. Most regulators do not provide clear-cut guidance in these areas (whether initial or recurrent training) and thus organizations tend to be tasked with figuring these things out on their own. Second, organizations may experience difficulties assessing outcome objectives to see if the training is truly having an effect. Outcome objectives are useful for measuring the efficacy of the training as well as providing critically important information to help shape or revise future recurrent courses. To provide a foundation for the rest of this article, familiarization with a pair of popular learning models is in order...

Northwest Flight 188: When Pilots Become Passengers

2009

On October 21st, 2009, Northwest Airlines Flight 188 overflew its destination airport (MSP) by about 150 miles and was out of radio contact with air traffic control for 78 minutes. The events that caused this incident were similar to the aforementioned accident in that the crew acted in an egregiously unprofessional manner. In this case, however, the problems started at cruise altitude rather than below 10,000 feet. At cruise altitude there is no regulation regarding non-essential chatter but it is assumed that the pilots will conform to a standard that is reflective of a professional flight crew. This was clearly not the case. Fortunately, this incident, compared to the Corporate Airlines accident, ended with no injuries or fatalities...

Landing in Extreme Weather: When Getting it on the Ground can Prove Fatal

2009

...Unfortunately, in real-world flight operations, the decision to go-around is not always clear-cut. Four major accidents are presented below to illuminate the significance of the problem. All of these accidents have a common thread; they all involved pilots’ decisions to land in weather conditions that exceeded either the aircraft limitations, pilot limitations, or a combination of both. Although detailed information about each accident is not included, extracts from the official accident reports as to Probable Cause have been cited...

Failure to Follow Procedures: Deviations are a Significant Factor in Maintenance Errors

2009

...These are but a few examples of the significance of the problem; deviations from approved procedures continue to be a leading cause of maintenance-related aircraft accidents. These unfortunate accidents are largely symptomatic of deeper, underlying problems in the aircraft maintenance domain. While it might be easy to fault each accountable AMT for "pulling the trigger" on these accidents, there are usually other antecedent variables that come into play long before the final active error. For instance, deviations may stem from factors such as time pressure, stress, fatigue or lack of resources. These factors typically do not occur in isolation but are linked together and may increase the likelihood of skipped steps, signoffs without verification, or continuing a job without the correct tools or equipment...

Fatigue Risk Management in Aircraft Maintenance: An Update on a Complex Issue

2009

...Since the BAC1-11 incident there have been a number of maintenance-related accidents and incidents where AMT fatigue has been cited as a contributing factor. In this same period there has also been an exponential increase in research conducted on fatigue in aviation maintenance activities. Studies have shown that fatigue can have consequential effects on a person’s cognitive ability. Cognition refers to mental processes such as awareness, perception, reasoning, and judgment...

An Exploration of Deviations in Aircraft Maintenance Procedures

2009

An informal study on deviations in aircraft maintenance procedures was conducted during a human factors training course in March of 2009. The purpose of the study was to pilot test the Maintenance Events Checklist (MEC) with a relatively small sample of aircraft maintenance technicians. The MEC is intended to capture participants’ responses to statements related to maintenance deviations. Participants consisted of aircraft maintenance technicians who worked in non-airline operations (i.e., corporate and business aviation, helicopter operators, and FBOs). Results showed that nearly 50% of the participants’ indicated they had "very rarely" deviated from the MEC content items. However, 22% indicated they had deviated "occasionally" and 5% indicated they had deviated "often." Causes and implications are discussed, which focus on organizational pressure, individual complacency, and deficiencies in aircraft maintenance documentation itself...

Using an Eight-Factor Model to Measure Error Attitudes at a Regional Airline

2009

One of the key features of a healthy safety culture is a non-punitive error reporting system. However, employees may be not be willing to report for reasons such as fear of reprisal, embarrassment, or pernicious attitudes. This study investigated error attitudes of employees at a regional airline. The Error Orientation Questionnaire was used to collect data on eight factors which included; (a) error competence, (b) learning from errors, (c) error risk taking, (d) error strain, (e) error anticipation, (f) covering up errors, (g) error communication, and (h) thinking about errors. An additional qualitative component consisted of participants’ perceptions of why they personally committed an error on the job as well as why they believed someone they knew committed an error. A key finding of this study, from employees’ point of view, is that pressure, situation awareness, and complacency are primary factors in error causation. Implications and countermeasures are discussed...

The Human Factors Ladder Still Needs to Extend Higher

2009

We have certainly come a long way in human factors training for aircraft maintenance technicians. I have had the opportunity to work with organizations around the world teaching and helping to develop customized human factors programs. I have measured both quantifiable and qualifiable changes in attitudes and behaviors as a result of human factors training. That is the good news. Then there is the not so good news. I have also observed a somewhat disappointing common trend throughout many organizations---the lack of management participation in human factors courses...

SOS for Your SMS: A Brief Look at Airport Safety Management Systems

2008

An airfield maintenance truck accidentally transgresses an active runway and causes a runway incursion. Although there is no actual collision between the truck and an aircraft on short final (that is forced to go around), the event is something that the pilots, maintenance crew, and air traffic controllers will not soon forget. The cause of the transgression is due to the inability of the maintenance crew to hear the tower’s last minute hold short instructions because the volume on their radio was turned down. Even though this event was fictitious, I am sure all airport managers can identify with real, similar experiences. More on this example shortly...

The Challenges of an Error Reporting System

2008

On first mention, many of the managers and supervisors I speak with are supportive of the idea of an error reporting system (ERS) in their organization. The benefit of an ERS is fairly obvious; if errors are reported then fixes can be implemented and errors can be diminished or in some cases even eliminated. This in turn creates a safer working environment as well as reduced vulnerability to litigation. Yet, in light of all these benefits, many organizations have failed to adopt and support a formal ERS...

Current Trends in Aviation Human Factors

2007

What Ever Happened to Cockpit Discipline? A Dissection of Corporate Airlines Flight 5966

2007

In a string of recent aircraft accidents there has been an emerging and very disturbing theme. It appears that non adherence to standard operating procedures and violations of the sterile cockpit rule are becoming far too common, often with tragic results. In one of the most recent accidents, the unprofessional actions by the flightcrew were contributory to a crash that claimed 13 lives, including the captain and first officer...

Aircraft Accident Investigations: Have we Lost Touch With the Behavioral Approach?

2006

...According to Wiegmann and Shappell (1997), "Although the overall rate of aviation accidents has declined steadily during the past 20 years, reduction in human error-related accidents have not paralleled those related to mechanical and environmental factors." From this, we can surmise that it is much easier to make airplanes safer from a technological approach than from the human approach. This is a truism and the adage 'to err is human' is a testament to the problem...

What the Media Should Know About Aircraft Accidents

2005

Another plane crash. Another deluge of phone calls from the media asking what caused the plane to crash. Speculation is immediately and unhesitatingly articulated by witnesses, passersby, and experts. "Lightning must have brought it down" says one. Another says, "He thought the airplane was just traveling too fast to stop." Pretty presumptuous for an eyewitness; extremely presumptuous for a non-pilot. Yet, the media, in their call to action, begin to use these very accounts as an explanation as to why the airplane crashed. Amidst rampant speculation, the media have their story; albeit lacking necessary credibility...

Conflict in the Cockpit: Can't we all Just get Along?

2005

This paper addresses leadership, followership, and decision skills as they apply to flight crewmembers. Most pilots display a mastery of these skills. Unfortunately, there are a small number of pilots who lack these and other interpersonal skills and can become a danger to the safety of flight. Two case studies are presented where there was such a breakdown in teamwork that the environment in the cockpit became hostile, abusive, and outright dangerous. Crew resource management training addresses many of these interpersonal issues and references to FAA Advisory Circular 120-51E (Crew Resource Management Training) are included for further edification...

 

 

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